Knowledge to decision in dynamic seas: methods to incorporate non-indigenous species into cumulative impact assessments for maritime spatial planning

Kiran Liversage , Jonne Kotta , Robert Aps , Mihhail Fetissov , Kristiina Nurkse , Helen Orav-Kotta , Merli Rätsep , Tiia Forsström , Amy Fowler , Maiju Lehtiniemi , Monika Normant-Saremba , Riikka Puntila-Dodd , Timo Arula , Kalvi Hubel , Henn Ojaveer

Abstract

Incorporating ecosystem changes from non-indigenous species (NIS) is an important task of maritime spatial planning. Maritime spatial planning requires a framework that emphasises ecological functioning in a state of dynamic change, including changes to ecosystem services from functions introduced by new NIS. Adaptable modelling toolsets should be developed that can readily incorporate knowledge of new NIS. In the Baltic Sea, recent NIS examples are the North American mud crab Rhithropanopeus harrisii and the Ponto-Caspian round goby Neogobius melanostomus. We performed environmental niche modelling that predicted N. melanostomus will spread across large areas of the Baltic Sea coast while R. harrisii will be limited to regions with high temperature and low salinity conditions. We then performed a meta-analysis on literature showing effects in the Baltic Sea from these NIS and calculated the standardised effect-sizes on relevant ecosystem services. Half the impacts identified for N. melanostomus were considered to increase ecosystem service outcomes, while all R. harrisii impacts caused apparent decreases. Effect coefficients were incorporated into an online impact assessment tool developed by the Estonian Marine Institute. Users with or without science training can use the portal to estimate areas impacted and changes to natural assets (km2) caused by these NIS and cumulative effects from other pressure-types. Impact estimates are based on best available knowledge from manipulative and correlative experiments and thus form a link between science and management. Dynamic modelling techniques informed from varied ecological and methodological perspectives will effectively advise spatial planners about rapid maritime changes and mitigation actions to reduce NIS impacts especially in the focus areas.
Author Kiran Liversage
Kiran Liversage,,
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, Jonne Kotta
Jonne Kotta,,
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, Robert Aps
Robert Aps,,
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, Mihhail Fetissov
Mihhail Fetissov,,
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, Kristiina Nurkse
Kristiina Nurkse,,
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, Helen Orav-Kotta
Helen Orav-Kotta,,
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, Merli Rätsep
Merli Rätsep,,
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, Tiia Forsström
Tiia Forsström,,
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, Amy Fowler
Amy Fowler,,
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, Maiju Lehtiniemi
Maiju Lehtiniemi,,
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et al.`
Journal seriesScience of the Total Environment, ISSN 0048-9697, (A 40 pkt)
Issue year2019
Vol658
Pages1452-1464
Publication size in sheets0.6
Keywords in Englishecosystem services, invasive marine species, Neogobius melanostomus, Rhithropanopeus harrisii, Baltic Sea, cumulative impacts
DOIDOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.123
URL https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.123
Languageen angielski
Score (nominal)40
ScoreMinisterial score = 40.0, ArticleFromJournal
Ministerial score (2013-2016) = 40.0, ArticleFromJournal
Publication indicators WoS Impact Factor: 2017 = 4.61 (2) - 2017=4.984 (5)
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