1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: the date predicted by a simple heuristic
W. W. Koczkodaj , M. A. Mansournia , W. Pedrycz , A. Wolny-Dominiak , P. F. Zabrodskii , D. Strzaška , T. Armstrong , A. H. Zolfaghari , Maciej Dębski , J. Mazurek
AbstractWe forecast 1,000,000 COVID-19 cases outside of China by March 30, 2020 based on a heuristic and WHO situation reports. We do not model the COVID-19 pandemic; we model only the number of cases. The proposed heuristic is based on a simple observation that the plot of the given data is well approximated by an exponential curve. The exponential curve is used for forecasting the growth of new cases. It has been tested for the last situation report of the last day. Its accuracy has been 1.29% for the last day added and predicted by the 57 previous WHO situation reports (the date 18 March 2020). Prediction, forecast, pandemic, COVID-19, coronavirus, exponential growth curve parameter, heuristic, epidemiology, extrapolation, abductive reasoning, WHO situation report.
|Journal series||Global Epidemiology, ISSN 2590-1133, (0 pkt)|
|Publication size in sheets||0.5|
|License||Journal (articles only); published final; ; with publication|
|Score||= 5.0, 29-04-2020, ArticleFromJournal|
* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or Perish system.