1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: the date predicted by a simple heuristic

W. W. Koczkodaj , M. A. Mansournia , W. Pedrycz , A. Wolny-Dominiak , P. F. Zabrodskii , D. Strzaška , T. Armstrong , A. H. Zolfaghari , Maciej Dębski , J. Mazurek


We forecast 1,000,000 COVID-19 cases outside of China by March 30, 2020 based on a heuristic and WHO situation reports. We do not model the COVID-19 pandemic; we model only the number of cases. The proposed heuristic is based on a simple observation that the plot of the given data is well approximated by an exponential curve. The exponential curve is used for forecasting the growth of new cases. It has been tested for the last situation report of the last day. Its accuracy has been 1.29% for the last day added and predicted by the 57 previous WHO situation reports (the date 18 March 2020). Prediction, forecast, pandemic, COVID-19, coronavirus, exponential growth curve parameter, heuristic, epidemiology, extrapolation, abductive reasoning, WHO situation report.
Publication typeIn press (online first, early view)
Author W. W. Koczkodaj
W. W. Koczkodaj,,
, M. A. Mansournia
M. A. Mansournia,,
, W. Pedrycz
W. Pedrycz,,
, A. Wolny-Dominiak
A. Wolny-Dominiak,,
, P. F. Zabrodskii
P. F. Zabrodskii,,
, D. Strzaška
D. Strzaška,,
, T. Armstrong
T. Armstrong,,
, A. H. Zolfaghari
A. H. Zolfaghari,,
, Maciej Dębski (FSS / IPSJ / DAS)
Maciej Dębski,,
- Division of Applied Sociology
, J. Mazurek
J. Mazurek,,
Journal seriesGlobal Epidemiology, ISSN 2590-1133, (0 pkt)
Issue year2020
Noonline first
Publication size in sheets0.5
Article number100023
URL https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloepi.2020.100023
Languageen angielski
LicenseJournal (articles only); published final; Uznanie Autorstwa - Użycie Niekomercyjne - Bez utworów zależnych (CC-BY-NC-ND); with publication
Score (nominal)5
Score sourcejournalList
ScoreMinisterial score = 5.0, 29-04-2020, ArticleFromJournal
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