Sensitivity of the Baltic Sea level prediction to spatial model resolution

Marek Kowalewski , Halina Kowalewska-Kalkowska

Abstract

The three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Baltic Sea (M3D) and its new parallel version (PM3D), developed at the Institute of Oceanography, University of Gdańsk in Poland, was tested to establish a grid resolution adequate for the Baltic Sea level prediction. Four outputs of the M3D/PM3D, calculated with spatial resolution varying from 3 NM to 0.5 NM, were validated by comparing the results with hourly sea level readings collected at 9 Baltic gauges in 2010–2015. The spatial resolution of 1 NM applied to the Baltic Sea resulted in a distinct improvement of agreement between the calculated and observed distributions of data. An increase in the resolution to 0.5 NM in the southern Baltic Sea improved the model quality further, as indicated by the lowest variability, the highest correlation and the highest percentage of water level simulations within the range of ± 0.15 m difference relative to readings. The increase in horizontal resolution allowed to improve the fit between the observed water levels and those calculated by the PM3D in the cases of rapid sea level fluctuations, such as those registered in January 2012. The model performed slightly worse for stations with larger ranges of water level oscillations. As parallel calculations were used in the PM3D, the time necessary for computing the simulations was significantly reduced, which allowed to apply the high-resolution grid also to the operational version of the model.
Author Marek Kowalewski ZOF - [Instytut Oceanologii Polskiej Akademii Nauk]
Marek Kowalewski,,
- Division of Physical Oceanography
- Instytut Oceanologii Polskiej Akademii Nauk
, Halina Kowalewska-Kalkowska
Halina Kowalewska-Kalkowska,,
-
Journal seriesJournal of Marine Systems, ISSN 0924-7963
Issue year2017
Vol173
Pages101-113
Publication size in sheets0.6
Keywords in Englishsea level, storm surges, hydrodynamic model, grid size resolution, Baltic Sea
DOIDOI:10.1016/jjmarsys.2017.05.001
URL https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2017.05.001
Languageen angielski
Score (nominal)40
ScoreMinisterial score = 30.0, 20-12-2017, ArticleFromJournal
Ministerial score (2013-2016) = 40.0, 20-12-2017, ArticleFromJournal
Publication indicators WoS Impact Factor: 2016 = 2.439 (2) - 2016=2.545 (5)
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* presented citation count is obtained through Internet information analysis and it is close to the number calculated by the Publish or Perish system.
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