The influence of large-scale factors on the heat load on human beings in Poland in the summer months

Małgorzata Owczarek

Abstract

The aim of the research was to identify connections between the occurrence of heat load across Poland and large-scale factors, which will allow statistical models to be derived that are useful to describe bioclimatic conditions in Poland in the summer. Atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic Ocean and Europe and near-surface air temperature over the central part of Europe were considered. The monthly frequency of the occurrence of combined “moderate, strong, very strong and extreme heat stress” based on the assessment scale of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) in the summer months accounted for 6% to more than 30% of all cases. The statistical downscaling procedure of canonical correlation analysis (CCA) with respect to the period 1971–2000 was applied to extract the main modes of large-scale factors and their local responses. The greatest explained variance of local field response to atmospheric circulation as well as to near-surface air temperature is above 70%. Warm air flow from the east and from the southeast has the strongest influence on the increase in frequency of the occurrence of heat stress on human beings in Poland. The spatial differentiation of the air temperature anomaly over central Europe is an important determinant of the occurrence of heat stress in Poland. The validation of constructed models encompassed the periods 1951–1970 and 2001–2010. The best reliability of results was reached for the reconstructed series in July. The results are less useful in June and August and in the coastal region.
Author Małgorzata Owczarek (FOG / IG / DMC)
Małgorzata Owczarek,,
- Department of Meteorology and Climatology
Journal seriesTheoretical and Applied Climatology, ISSN 0177-798X, (A 30 pkt)
Issue year2019
Vol137
No1-2
Pages855-869
Publication size in sheets0.7
Keywords in Englishbioclimate, heat stress, Universal Thermal Climate Index, canonical correlation analysis
ASJC Classification1902 Atmospheric Science
DOIDOI:10.1007/s00704-018-2633-z
URL https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00704-018-2633-z.pdf
Languageen angielski
LicenseOther; published final; Uznanie Autorstwa (CC-BY); with publication
Score (nominal)30
ScoreMinisterial score = 30.0, 24-07-2019, ArticleFromJournal
Publication indicators Scopus SNIP (Source Normalised Impact per Paper): 2017 = 0.999; WoS Impact Factor: 2017 = 2.321 (2) - 2017=2.618 (5)
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